## Monday, 17 August 2015

### R, Python, and SAS: Getting Started with Linear Regression

Consider the linear regression model, $$y_i=f_i(\boldsymbol{x}|\boldsymbol{\beta})+\varepsilon_i,$$ where $y_i$ is the response or the dependent variable at the $i$th case, $i=1,\cdots, N$ and the predictor or the independent variable is the $\boldsymbol{x}$ term defined in the mean function $f_i(\boldsymbol{x}|\boldsymbol{\beta})$. For simplicity, consider the following simple linear regression (SLR) model, $$y_i=\beta_0+\beta_1x_i+\varepsilon_i.$$ To obtain the (best) estimate of $\beta_0$ and $\beta_1$, we solve for the least residual sum of squares (RSS) given by, $$S=\sum_{i=1}^{n}\varepsilon_i^2=\sum_{i=1}^{n}(y_i-\beta_0-\beta_1x_i)^2.$$ Now suppose we want to fit the model to the following data, Average Heights and Weights for American Women, where weight is the response and height is the predictor. The data is available in R by default.

## Tuesday, 21 July 2015

### Parametric Inference: Karlin-Rubin Theorem

A family of pdfs or pmfs $\{g(t|\theta):\theta\in\Theta\}$ for a univariate random variable $T$ with real-valued parameter $\theta$ has a monotone likelihood ratio (MLR) if, for every $\theta_2>\theta_1$, $g(t|\theta_2)/g(t|\theta_1)$ is a monotone (nonincreasing or nondecreasing) function of $t$ on $\{t:g(t|\theta_1)>0\;\text{or}\;g(t|\theta_2)>0\}$. Note that $c/0$ is defined as $\infty$ if $0< c$.
Consider testing $H_0:\theta\leq \theta_0$ versus $H_1:\theta>\theta_0$. Suppose that $T$ is a sufficient statistic for $\theta$ and the family of pdfs or pmfs $\{g(t|\theta):\theta\in\Theta\}$ of $T$ has an MLR. Then for any $t_0$, the test that rejects $H_0$ if and only if $T >t_0$ is a UMP level $\alpha$ test, where $\alpha=P_{\theta_0}(T >t_0)$.
Example 1
To better understand the theorem, consider a single observation, $X$, from $\mathrm{n}(\theta,1)$, and test the following hypotheses: $$H_0:\theta\leq \theta_0\quad\mathrm{versus}\quad H_1:\theta>\theta_0.$$ Then $\theta_1>\theta_0$, and the likelihood ratio test statistics would be $$\lambda(x)=\frac{f(x|\theta_1)}{f(x|\theta_0)}.$$ And we say that the null hypothesis is rejected if $\lambda(x)>k$. To see if the distribution of the sample has MLR property, we simplify the above equation as follows:

## Saturday, 23 May 2015

### Parametric Inference: Likelihood Ratio Test Problem 2

More on Likelihood Ratio Test, the following problem is originally from Casella and Berger (2001), exercise 8.12.

### Problem

For samples of size $n=1,4,16,64,100$ from a normal population with mean $\mu$ and known variance $\sigma^2$, plot the power function of the following LRTs (Likelihood Ratio Tests). Take $\alpha = .05$.
1. $H_0:\mu\leq 0$ versus $H_1:\mu>0$
2. $H_0:\mu=0$ versus $H_1:\mu\neq 0$

### Solution

1. The LRT statistic is given by $$\lambda(\mathbf{x})=\frac{\displaystyle\sup_{\mu\leq 0}\mathcal{L}(\mu|\mathbf{x})}{\displaystyle\sup_{-\infty<\mu<\infty}\mathcal{L}(\mu|\mathbf{x})}, \;\text{since }\sigma^2\text{ is known}.$$ The denominator can be expanded as follows: \begin{aligned} \sup_{-\infty<\mu<\infty}\mathcal{L}(\mu|\mathbf{x})&=\sup_{-\infty<\mu<\infty}\prod_{i=1}^{n}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}\sigma}\exp\left[-\frac{(x_i-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}\right]\\ &=\sup_{-\infty<\mu<\infty}\frac{1}{(2\pi\sigma^2)^{1/n}}\exp\left[-\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{(x_i-\mu)^2}{2\sigma^2}\right]\\ &=\frac{1}{(2\pi\sigma^2)^{1/n}}\exp\left[-\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{(x_i-\bar{x})^2}{2\sigma^2}\right],\\ &\quad\text{since }\bar{x}\text{ is the MLE of }\mu.\\ &=\frac{1}{(2\pi\sigma^2)^{1/n}}\exp\left[-\frac{n-1}{n-1}\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n}\frac{(x_i-\bar{x})^2}{2\sigma^2}\right]\\ &=\frac{1}{(2\pi\sigma^2)^{1/n}}\exp\left[-\frac{(n-1)s^2}{2\sigma^2}\right],\\ \end{aligned}